{"id":14265,"date":"2025-11-10T13:58:53","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T13:58:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/?p=14265"},"modified":"2025-11-10T18:36:41","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T18:36:41","slug":"%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e6%96%b0%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%ef%bc%9a%e5%86%b2%e7%aa%81%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e9%87%8d%e5%a1%91%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/2025\/11\/%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e6%96%b0%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%ef%bc%9a%e5%86%b2%e7%aa%81%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e9%87%8d%e5%a1%91%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6218\u4e89\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff1a\u51b2\u7a81\u5982\u4f55\u91cd\u5851\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e00\u76f4\u5c06\u6218\u4e89\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u5916\u6e90\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u77ed\u6682\u5730\u6270\u4e71\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6700\u7ec8\u56de\u5f52\u5747\u503c\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8303\u5f0f\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u6218\u4e89\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5185\u751f\u6027\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u7834\u574f\u6210\u672c\u5728\u533a\u57df\u5c42\u9762\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u5bf9\u4e2d\u4e1c\u548c\u5317\u975e (MENA) \u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u90a3\u91cc\u6709\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u53d7\u5230\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u30021<\/sup> \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u3001\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6b63\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7 (FMI) \u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8bba\u575b (WEF) \u53d1\u5e03\u76842025-2026\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u518d\u5c06\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u89c6\u4e3a\u811a\u6ce8\u30023<\/sup> \u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u201c\u788e\u7247\u5316\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u57fa\u51c6\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u6e29\u548c\uff0c\u5e76\u5448\u73b0\u201c\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u201d\u30026<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FMI \u5728\u51762025\u5e7410\u6708\u7684\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c55\u671b\u300b(WEO) \u4e2d\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u6e29\u548c\uff0c2025\u5e74\u4e3a $3.2\\%$\uff0c2026\u5e74\u4e3a $3.1\\%$\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u30027<\/sup> \u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u653e\u7f13\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u6469\u64e6\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u5df2\u4ece\u201c\u5c3e\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201d\uff08\u5373\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u3001\u9ad8\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u201c\u6301\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u201d\uff1a\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u62d6\u7d2f\u548c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u8bba\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3\u51b2\u7a81\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u5b9e\u4f53\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u5728\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u3001SWIFT\u652f\u4ed8\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93\u8def\u7ebf\u4e0a\u6f14\u3002\u672c\u5206\u6790\u65e8\u5728\u5256\u6790\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b0\u8303\u5f0f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u6218\u4e89\u5982\u4f55\u6210\u4e3a\u540e\u5168\u7403\u5316\u65f6\u4ee3\u5b9a\u4e49\u8d44\u672c\u914d\u7f6e\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u6218\u7565\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u51b2\u51fb\uff1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6218\u4e89\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u51b2\u7a81\u5411\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f20\u5bfc\u7684\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u6e20\u9053\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u2014\u2014\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u201c\u7cae\u4ed3\u201d\u548c\u201c\u52a0\u6cb9\u7ad9\u201d\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u2014\u2014\u5168\u7403\u80fd\u6e90\u67a2\u7ebd\u2014\u2014\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6b66\u5668\u30025<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u201c\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u201d\u4e0e1973\u5e74\u7684\u6559\u8bad<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u73b0\u4ee3\u51b2\u7a81\u91cd\u65b0\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u80fd\u6e90\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u672c\u5e94\u662f1973\u5e74\u77f3\u6cb9\u5371\u673a\u540e\u5438\u53d6\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u300211<\/sup> \u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u6b27\u4f69\u514b (OPEC) \u7684\u7981\u8fd0\u66b4\u9732\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u5bf9\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u300212<\/sup> \u6b63\u5982Cesce\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u662f\u4f9b\u5e94\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u591a\u5143\u5316<\/em>\u548c\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u5f00\u53d1\u300212<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c2022\u5e74\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u573a\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u66f4\u5c16\u9510\u3001\u66f4\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c (BCE) \u5173\u4e8e\u76f4\u63a5\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u6570\u636e\u662f\u6b8b\u9177\u7684\uff1a\u5728\u5165\u4fb5\u540e\u7684\u5934\u4e24\u5468\uff0c\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86\u7ea6 $40\\%$\uff0c\u9e7f\u7279\u4e39\u7164\u70ad\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86 $130\\%$\uff0c\u800c\u8377\u5170TTF\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4ef7\u683c\u66f4\u662f\u98d9\u5347\u4e86 $180\\%$\u300213<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\u5bf9\u5176\u80fd\u6e90\u5b89\u5168\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u88ab\u8feb\u7684\u3001\u4ee3\u4ef7\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u91cd\u7ec4\u300214<\/sup> \u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ba1\u9053\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u7684\u635f\u5931 16<\/sup> \u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3 (CSIS) \u6240\u79f0\u7684\u201c\u751f\u5b58\u7b56\u7565\u201d\u6765\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u300215<\/sup> \u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u5305\u62ec\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6db2\u5316\u5929\u7136\u6c14 (LNG) \u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u7ffb\u4e00\u756a\uff0c\u4ece2021\u5e74\u7684290\u4ebf\u7acb\u65b9\u7c73 (bcm) \u589e\u52a0\u52302022\u5e74\u7684700\u4ebf\u7acb\u65b9\u7c73\u300215<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5411\u5168\u7403LNG\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0d\u5e94\u4e0e\u201c\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u201d\u76f8\u6df7\u6dc6\u300212<\/sup> 1973\u5e74\u7684\u5371\u673a\u6559\u4f1a\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u591a\u6837\u5316<\/em>\u5176\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u800c2022\u5e74\u7684\u5371\u673a\u5219\u7ed9\u6b27\u6d32\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u523b\u3001\u66f4\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u3002\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u5c06\u5bf9\u76f8\u5bf9\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ba1\u9053\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u5bf9\u66f4\u7075\u6d3b\u4f46\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u66f4\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5361\u5854\u5c14LNG\u8fd0\u8f93\u8239\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u300215<\/sup> \u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u6218\u7565\u6559\u8bad\u662f\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\u5e76\u975e\u6765\u81ea\u8fdb\u53e3\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u7684\u591a\u6837\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u52a0\u901f\u5bf9\u56fd\u5185\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6765\u51cf\u5c11\u9700\u6c42<\/em>\u300215<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u51b2\u51fb\u4e5f\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u6839\u672c\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u80fd\u6e90\u51c0\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd 15<\/sup>\uff0c\u5176\u901a\u80c0\u66f4\u591a\u662f\u7531\u56fd\u5185\u9700\u6c42\u9a71\u52a8\u7684 19<\/sup>\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u6d32\u5219\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u4e14\u4f7f\u5176\u8870\u5f31\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u5e94\u51b2\u51fb\u300213<\/sup> \u8fd9\u79cd\u901a\u80c0\u51b2\u51fb\u6027\u8d28<\/em>\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8 (Fed) \u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c (BCE) \u5728\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u7684\u65f6\u673a<\/em>\u548c\u529b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u300220<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7cae\u98df\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u80fd\u6e90\uff1b\u5b83\u8fd8\u4e2d\u65ad\u4e86\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u7cae\u4ed3\u201d\u300222<\/sup> \u9ed1\u6d77\u6e2f\u53e3\u7684\u5c01\u9501\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u6700\u80a5\u6c83\u5730\u533a\u4e4b\u4e00\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u7acb\u5373\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u53cd\u54cd\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u8c37\u7269\u7684\u5173\u952e\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5316\u80a5\u7684\u5173\u952e\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\u300224<\/sup> \u8fd9\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u5168\u7403\u7cae\u98df\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5d29\u6e83 22<\/sup>\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5bf9\u6700\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u56fd\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e2d\u4e1c\u548c\u5317\u975e\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u30021<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\u51b2\u7a81\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u51b2\u51fb (2022-2024)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1<\/strong><\/td>\u5cf0\u503c\u6da8\u5e45 % (\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5165\u4fb5\u540e)<\/strong><\/td>\u51b2\u7a81\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20<\/strong><\/td>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
\u5929\u7136\u6c14 (TTF)<\/td>$\\sim 180\\%$<\/td>\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u6b66\u5668\u5316\uff1b\u5317\u6eaa\u7ba1\u9053\u4e2d\u65ad\u3002<\/td>13<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
\u7164\u70ad (\u9e7f\u7279\u4e39)<\/td>$\\sim 130\\%$<\/td>\u53d1\u7535\u7528\u7164\u66ff\u4ee3\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u3002<\/td>13<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
\u77f3\u6cb9 (\u5e03\u4f26\u7279)<\/td>$\\sim 40\\%$<\/td>\u5236\u88c1\u53ca\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002<\/td>13<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
\u5c0f\u9ea6<\/td>$\\sim 50-60\\%$ (\u671f\u8d27\u6307\u6570)<\/td>\u9ed1\u6d77\u6e2f\u53e3\u5c01\u9501\uff1b\u4f5c\u7269\u88ab\u6bc1\u3002<\/td>22<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
\u5316\u80a5<\/td>$\\sim 30-40\\%$ (\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6570)<\/td>\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u94be\u80a5\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\uff09\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u3002<\/td>24<\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

\u8d38\u6613\u52a8\u8109\u53d7\u963b\uff1a\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u5371\u673a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u8bf4\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u51b2\u51fb\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u62f3\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7b2c\u4e8c\u62f3\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7269\u6d41\u5927\u52a8\u8109\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u51b2\u7a81\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u5728\u6d77\u4e0a\u54bd\u5589\u8981\u9053\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u4e00\u573a\u5730\u533a\u51b2\u7a81\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u75db\u82e6\u300226<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6700\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u7ea2\u6d77\u5371\u673a\u3002\u4e3a\u56de\u5e94\u52a0\u6c99\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u5bf9\u5546\u8239\u7684\u88ad\u51fb\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u822a\u8fd0\u516c\u53f8\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4e9a\u6b27\u822a\u7ebf\uff0c\u907f\u5f00\u82cf\u4f0a\u58eb\u8fd0\u6cb3\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u7ed5\u9053\u975e\u6d32\u597d\u671b\u89d2\u300227<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u7acb\u5373\u800c\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • \u8fd0\u8f93\u65f6\u95f4\uff1a<\/strong> \u7ed5\u884c\u4f7f\u822a\u7a0b\u589e\u52a0\u4e8610\u523015\u5929\u30022024\u5e742\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u91cf\u5316\u4e86\u4ece\u4e9a\u6d32\u5230\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u8fd0\u8f93\u65f6\u95f4\u589e\u5e45\uff1a\u5230\u9e7f\u7279\u4e39\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 $46\\%$\uff0c\u5230\u963f\u5c14\u8d6b\u897f\u62c9\u65af\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u662f\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u60ca\u4eba\u7684 $51\\%$\u300227<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • \u4fdd\u9669\u6210\u672c\uff1a<\/strong> \u6d77\u4e0a\u6218\u4e89\u98ce\u9669\u4fdd\u8d39\u5728\u5371\u673a\u524d\u5fae\u4e0d\u8db3\u9053\uff08\u7ea6\u4e3a\u8239\u4f53\u4ef7\u503c\u7684 $0.05\\%$ – $0.07\\%$\uff09\uff0c\u73b0\u5df2\u98d9\u5347\u300228<\/sup> \u5728\u5371\u673a\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u65f6\uff0c\u4fdd\u8d39\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u8239\u8236\u4ef7\u503c\u7684 $0.7\\%$ \u5230 $1.0\\%$\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e3a\u671f7\u5929\u7684\u5355\u6b21\u822a\u884c<\/em>\u300228<\/sup> \u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u8258\u4ef7\u503c1.5\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u8239\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u6bcf\u8d9f\u822a\u7a0b\u589e\u52a0150\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6210\u672c\u30022025\u5e74\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u538b\u529b\u300231<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • \u8fd0\u8d39\u6210\u672c\uff1a<\/strong> \u8fd9\u79cd\u4e2d\u65ad\u5bfc\u81f4\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u8fd0\u8d39\u6781\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u5df2\u4ece\u75ab\u60c5\u9ad8\u70b9\u56de\u843d\u7684\u5fb7\u8def\u91cc\u4e16\u754c\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u6307\u6570 (WCI) \u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u6025\u5267\u53cd\u5f39\u300232<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    \u8fd0\u8f93\u65f6\u95f4\u589e\u52a0 $51\\%$ \u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdc\u4e0d\u6b62\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5b83\u5ba3\u544a\u4e86\u201c\u51c6\u65f6\u5236\u201d (Just-in-Time, JIT) \u5e93\u5b58\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6b7b\u5211\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u5f0f\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u91cc\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7ba1\u7406\u3002JIT\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027<\/em>\uff1b15\u5929\u7684\u5ef6\u8fdf\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u4fbf\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u88c5\u914d\u7ebf\u505c\u5de5\u548c\u8d27\u67b6\u7a7a\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u88ab\u8feb\u4ece\u201c\u51c6\u65f6\u5236\u201d\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u4ee5\u9632\u4e07\u4e00\u201d (Just-in-Case, JIC)\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u5e93\u5b58\u4ee5\u5bf9\u51b2\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e2d\u65ad\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u770b\u4f3c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5730\u7684\u4ed3\u5e93\u4e2d\u5360\u7528\u4e86\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8425\u8fd0\u8d44\u672c\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u6218\u4e89\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u9690\u6027\u6c38\u4e45\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5b83\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u8d44\u672c\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u6210\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u7684\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u77db\u76fe\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u822a\u8fd0\u4e1a\u672c\u8eab\u5374\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u91d1\u878d\u751f\u547d\u7ebf\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u65b0\u8239\u96c6\u4e2d\u4ea4\u4ed8\uff0c\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u57282024-2025\u5e74\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u8fc7\u5269\u98ce\u9669\u300233<\/sup> \u7ed5\u884c\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u822a\u7ebf\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u8239\u53ea\u675f\u7f1a\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u822a\u7a0b\u4e0a\uff0c\u4eba\u4e3a\u5730\u5438\u6536<\/em>\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fc7\u5269\u8fd0\u529b\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c2024\u5e74\u7684\u8fd0\u8d39\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f7f\u627f\u8fd0\u4eba\u53d7\u76ca\u300235<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u8fd9\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u5177\u6709\u8bbd\u523a\u610f\u5473\u7684\u662f\uff0c2025-2026\u5e74\u822a\u8fd0\u4e1a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u548c\u5e73<\/em>\u3002\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u505c\u706b\u5c06\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u653e\u7ea2\u6d77\u822a\u7ebf 34<\/sup>\uff0c\u7acb\u5373\u4f7f\u6240\u6709\u201c\u88ab\u56f0\u201d\u5728\u957f\u822a\u7ebf\u4e0a\u7684\u8fd0\u529b\u5f97\u5230\u91ca\u653e\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u529b\u6cdb\u6ee5\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u53d1\u8fd0\u8d39\u66b4\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    \u91cf\u5316\u7ea2\u6d77\u4e2d\u65ad\u7684\u5f71\u54cd (2024-2025)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5f71\u54cd\u6307\u6807<\/strong><\/td>\u57fa\u51c6\u6570\u636e (2023\u5e74Q3)<\/strong><\/td>\u5cf0\u503c\u6570\u636e (2024-2025)<\/strong><\/td>\u5546\u4e1a\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/td>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
    \u8fd0\u8f93\u65f6\u95f4\u589e\u52a0 (\u4e9a\u6d32-\u9e7f\u7279\u4e39)<\/td>N\/A<\/td>$+46\\%$<\/td>\u201c\u51c6\u65f6\u5236\u201d\u4e2d\u65ad\uff1b\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/td>27<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
    \u8fd0\u8f93\u65f6\u95f4\u589e\u52a0 (\u4e9a\u6d32-\u963f\u5c14\u8d6b\u897f\u62c9\u65af)<\/td>N\/A<\/td>$+51\\%$<\/td>\u201c\u51c6\u65f6\u5236\u201d\u4e2d\u65ad\uff1b\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/td>27<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
    \u6218\u4e89\u98ce\u9669\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39 (% \u8239\u4f53\u4ef7\u503c)<\/td>$\\sim 0.05\\%$<\/td>$\\sim 1.0\\%$<\/td>\u8fd0\u8f93\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u6025\u5267\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/td>28<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
    Drewry WCI (\u7f8e\u5143\/FEU, 2025\u5e7411\u6708)<\/td>$\\sim 1,500$\u7f8e\u5143 (2019\u5e74\u5747\u503c)<\/td>$\\sim 1,959$\u7f8e\u5143<\/td>\u53ef\u53d8\u6210\u672c\u6ce2\u52a8\uff1b\u8f93\u5165\u6027\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/td>32<\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n

    \u91d1\u878d\u201c\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u201d\u4e0e\u8d27\u5e01\u788e\u7247\u5316<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u6700\u91cd\u5927\u4e14\u6700\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u7269\u7406\u4e0a\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u4e0a\u7684\u3002\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u201d (weaponization of finance) 37<\/sup>\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u63cf\u8ff0\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5de5\u5177\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7528\u4f5c\u56fd\u5bb6\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u2014\u2014\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u8d70\u5411\u5b9e\u8df5\u30022022\u5e74\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u9488\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2aG20\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff09\u7684\u534f\u8c03\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5bf9\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u67b6\u6784\u7684\u6839\u672c\u6027\u53cd\u601d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u91d1\u878d\u201c\u6838\u9009\u9879\u201d\uff1aSWIFT\u4e0e\u50a8\u5907\u51bb\u7ed3<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u897f\u65b9\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\u53cc\u91cd\u7684\uff0c\u4e14\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5c06\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e3b\u8981\u94f6\u884c\u6392\u9664\u51fa\u73af\u7403\u94f6\u884c\u91d1\u878d\u7535\u4fe1\u534f\u4f1a (SWIFT) \u62a5\u6587\u7cfb\u7edf\u300239<\/sup> SWIFT\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u8f6c\u79fb\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u62a5\u6587\u201c\u7ba1\u9053\u201d\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u94f6\u884c\u5c31\u8de8\u5883\u4ea4\u6613\u8fdb\u884c\u6c9f\u901a\u300241<\/sup> \u5207\u65adSWIFT\u8bbf\u95ee\u6743\u9650\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5c06\u4e00\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u9694\u79bb\u5f00\u6765\u300240<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u66f4\u5177\u51b2\u51fb\u6027\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u51bb\u7ed3\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u592e\u884c\u5b58\u653e\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u7ba1\u8f96\u533a\u5185\u4ef7\u503c\u6570\u5343\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u300237<\/sup> \u8fd9\u4e00\u884c\u52a8\u7c89\u788e\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b58\u653e\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u7684\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u5238\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u89e6\u78b0\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u89c2\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u53cd\u5f39\uff1a\u6784\u5efa\u5e73\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5236\u88c1\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u6c89\u91cd\u6253\u51fb 39<\/sup>\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u66f4\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u6fc0\u52b1<\/em>\u4e86\u4e0d\u7ed3\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u7acb\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5317\u4eac\u3001\u65b0\u5fb7\u91cc\u6216\u5229\u96c5\u5f97\u91ca\u653e\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u76f8\u6096\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u50a8\u5907\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u6e20\u9053\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u64a4\u9500\u300237<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u8fd9\u79cd\u8ba4\u8bc6\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u5e73\u884c\u652f\u4ed8\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u51fa\u73b0\u5206\u53c9\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • \u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848 (SPFS)\uff1a<\/strong> \u57282014\u5e74\u6700\u521d\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u8f93\u7cfb\u7edf (SPFS)\u3002\u57282022\u5e74\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u51faSWIFT\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u52a0\u5feb\u4e86\u5176\u6269\u5f20\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u52302025\u5e74\uff0cSPFS\u5df2\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u8fde\u63a520\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6570\u767e\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u5236\u88c1\u5f39\u6027\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6e20\u9053\u300238<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848 (CIPS)\uff1a<\/strong> \u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u63a8\u5e7f\u5176\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8de8\u5883\u652f\u4ed8\u7cfb\u7edf (CIPS)\u300243<\/sup> \u5fc5\u987b\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0cCIPS\u4e0d\u662fSWIFT\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u590d\u5236\u54c1\u3002SWIFT\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u62a5\u6587<\/em>\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u800cCIPS\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u4e8e\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01 (RMB) \u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u7ed3\u7b97<\/em>\u7cfb\u7edf\u300243<\/sup> \u5176\u589e\u957f\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\uff1a2024\u5e74\uff0cCIPS\u5904\u7406\u4e86175.49\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\uff08\u7ea6\u540824.47\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f $42.6\\%$\u3002\u622a\u81f32025\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u5b83\u5df2\u62e5\u6709176\u5bb6\u76f4\u63a5\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u548c1500\u591a\u5bb6\u95f4\u63a5\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u904d\u5e03121\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u300245<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • \u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848 (BRICS Pay)\uff1a<\/strong> \u6269\u5927\u540e\u7684\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6\u96c6\u56e2\u6b63\u5728\u79ef\u6781\u5f00\u53d1\u201cBRICS Pay\u201d\u300246<\/sup> \u5728\u5580\u5c71\u5cf0\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6279\u51c6\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4e0d\u662f\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u8fde\u63a5\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u652f\u4ed8\u7cfb\u7edf<\/em>\uff08\u5982\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684SPFS\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684CIPS\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u7684UPI\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u672c\u5e01\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u7ed5\u8fc7\u7f8e\u5143\u300247<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u53d7\u5230\u5a01\u80c1\u4e86\u5417\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u91cc\u58eb\u6ee1\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u653e\u5f03\u7f8e\u5143\u6bd4\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u8981\u56f0\u96be\u5f97\u591a\u300250<\/sup> \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u6df1\u539a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u5176\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u65e0\u4e0e\u4f26\u6bd4\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caSWIFT\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u8d27\u5e01\u4e2d\u7acb\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u300250<\/sup> \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u50cf\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5173\u952e\u66ff\u4ee3\u8d27\u5e01\u4ecd\u7136\u53d7\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5168\u7403\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u300251<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u80fd\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u70b9\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u662fCIPS\u5c06\u53d6\u4ee3<\/em>SWIFT\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5c06\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d6\u4ee3\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u4e8e\u5206\u53c9<\/em> (bifurcation)\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u8d70\u5411\u4e00\u4e2a\u540e\u7f8e\u5143<\/em>\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u8d70\u5411\u4e00\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316<\/em> (financially bifurcated) \u7684\u672a\u6765\u300252<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5728\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u5c06\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\/\u6b27\u5143\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08G7\uff09\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u96c6\u56e2\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7SWIFT\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u884c\u7684\u96c6\u56e2\uff08\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6+\u548c\u201c\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u201d\uff09\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528CIPS\u3001SPFS\u548cBRICS Pay\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u4ee5\u672c\u5e01\u8fdb\u884c\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u8d38\u6613\u300253<\/sup> \u5bf9\u4e8e\u8de8\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u5408\u89c4\u548c\u8d22\u52a1\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u5669\u68a6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5c06\u88ab\u8feb\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u89c4\u5219\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u652f\u4ed8\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u8fd0\u8425\u300242<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u201d\u4e5f\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5bf9\u201c\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u201d\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u30022022\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u201c\u65e0\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u51bb\u7ed3\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5e76\u975e<\/em>\u6ca1\u6709\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u5b83\u4eec\u627f\u8f7d\u7740\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669<\/em>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u7ed3\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u592e\u884c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u6b27\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5176\u56fd\u5bb6\u50a8\u84c4\u53d7\u5236\u4e8e\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u8fd9\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4f55\u5404\u56fd\u8f6c\u5411\u9ec4\u91d1\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u79cd\u5b9e\u7269\u7684\u3001\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u6263\u62bc\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u8282\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8109\u640f\uff1a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u3001\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u4e0e\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5b9e\u65f6\u5904\u7406\u6218\u4e89\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5c06\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u4ef7\u683c\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u53cc\u91cd\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\uff08\u89c4\u907f\u98ce\u9669\uff09\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08\u5bfb\u6c42\u5229\u6da6\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u201c\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u201d (VIX) \u4e0e\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7 (\u9ec4\u91d1)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u662f\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6743\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6307\u6570 (CBOE Volatility Index, VIX)\uff0c\u4fd7\u79f0\u201c\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14500\u6307\u6570\u672a\u676530\u5929\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u300255<\/sup> \u8be5\u6307\u6570\u5728\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\u6025\u5267\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u671f\u95f4\u7ecf\u5e38\u8df3\u81f320\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff08\u8b66\u6212\u533a\uff09\u751a\u81f340\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff08\u6781\u7aef\u6050\u614c\uff09\u300256<\/sup> \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u6ce2\u52a8\u5df2\u53d8\u5f97\u5982\u6b64\u6301\u4e45\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6b63\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u66f4\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u201c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u6307\u6570\uff08\u6709\u65f6\u79f0\u4e3a VIX-GEO\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u6ce2\u52a8\u6e90\u4e0e\u66f4\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u6765\u300259<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4ee5\u53ca\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff0c\u5df2\u8702\u62e5\u6d8c\u5165\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u9ec4\u91d1\u57282024\u5e74\u548c2025\u5e74\u521b\u4e0b\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u300262<\/sup> \u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u79c1\u4eba\u94f6\u884c2025\u5e743\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5206\u6790\u62a5\u544a\u7ef4\u6301\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06\u201c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u9700\u6c42\u201d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e3a\u5173\u952e\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u300264<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u8d2d\u4e70\u9ec4\u91d1\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u201c\u907f\u9669\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u57fa\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u524d\u4e00\u8282\u6240\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u7ed3\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u592e\u884c\u6b63\u5728\u79ef\u6781\u5730\u5c06\u5176\u50a8\u5907\u4ece<\/em>\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u51bb\u7ed3\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e2d\u5206\u6563\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411<\/em>\u4e00\u79cd\u5b9e\u7269\u7684\u3001\u4e2d\u7acb\u7684\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u6263\u62bc\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff08\u9ec4\u91d1\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u65b0\u5174\u201c\u589e\u957f\u884c\u4e1a\u201d\uff1a\u56fd\u9632<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u6218\u4e89\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u3001\u6700\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u540e\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u66f4\u591a\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u201c\u548c\u5e73\u7ea2\u5229\u201d (peace dividend) \u65f6\u4ee3\u2014\u2014\u5373\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u4ee5\u519b\u4e8b\u9884\u7b97\u7f29\u51cf\u4e3a\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u2014\u2014\u5df2\u7ecf\u621b\u7136\u800c\u6b62\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5168\u7403\u519b\u8d39\u5f00\u652f\u731b\u589e\u3002\u65af\u5fb7\u54e5\u5c14\u6469\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u5e73\u7814\u7a76\u6240 (SIPRI) 2025\u5e744\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c2024\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u519b\u8d39\u5f00\u652f\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86 $2.718$\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u5b9e\u9645\u589e\u957f $9.4\\%$ \u7684\u60ca\u4eba\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u662f\u81f3\u5c11\u81ea\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9661\u5ced\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u300265<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u6240\u6709\u5730\u533a\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u90fd\u5728\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u589e\u957f\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u5730\u533a\u6216\u5176\u9644\u8fd1 65<\/sup>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • \u652f\u51fa\u6700\u591a\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\uff09\u5360\u5168\u7403\u603b\u989d\u7684 $60\\%$\u300265<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • \u5fb7\u56fd<\/strong> \u7684\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 $28\\%$\uff08\u8fbe\u5230 $885$ \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u56db\u5927\u652f\u51fa\u56fd\u300265<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • \u6ce2\u5170<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u524d\u7ebf\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 $31\\%$\uff08\u8fbe\u5230 $380$ \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u300265<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • \u4ee5\u8272\u5217<\/strong>\uff0c\u6df1\u9677\u52a0\u6c99\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u5176\u652f\u51fa\u731b\u589e\u4e86 $65\\%$\uff08\u8fbe\u5230 $465$ \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u300265<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        \u8fd9\u79cd\u7531\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u652f\u51fa\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u80a1\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u3002\u6668\u661f (Morningstar) 2025\u5e743\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5206\u6790\u5c06\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u6fc0\u589e\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u201c\u987a\u98ce\u201d\u300267<\/sup> \u83b1\u8335\u91d1\u5c5e (Rheinmetall) \u548c\u52b3\u65af\u83b1\u65af (Rolls-Royce) \u7b49\u6b27\u6d32\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8ba2\u5355\u91cf\u5df2\u81a8\u80c0\u81f3\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6668\u661f\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e0a\u8c03\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u6536\u5165\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u52302029\u5e74\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230 $3.1\\%$\uff08\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 $2.4\\%$\uff09\uff0c\u52302032\u5e74\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230 $3.5\\%$\u300267<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        2024-2025\u5e74\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u4e2d\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6b63\u5728\u6267\u884c\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u6760\u94c3\u7b56\u7565\u201d (barbell trade)\uff1a\u4ed6\u4eec\u540c\u65f6\u8d2d\u4e70\u5bf9\u51b2\u7cfb\u7edf\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\uff08\u9ec4\u91d1\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u90a3\u4e9b\u76f4\u63a5\u4ece\u5bfc\u81f4\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\uff08\u56fd\u9632\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cc\u91cd\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u788e\u7247\u5316\u3001\u591a\u6781\u5316\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5178\u578b\u6295\u8d44\u4e3b\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n

        \u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u7684\u6fc0\u589e (2024\u5e74\u6570\u636e)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u56fd\u5bb6\/\u5730\u533a<\/strong><\/td>2024\u5e74\u652f\u51fa (\u7f8e\u5143)<\/strong><\/td>\u5b9e\u9645\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u5e45 %<\/strong><\/td>\u51b2\u7a81\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20 \/ \u542b\u4e49<\/strong><\/td>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
        \u5168\u7403<\/strong><\/td>$2.718$\u4e07\u4ebf<\/td>$+9.4\\%$<\/td>\u51b7\u6218\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5feb\u589e\u5e45\uff1b\u201c\u548c\u5e73\u7ea2\u5229\u201d\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002<\/td>65<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
        \u5fb7\u56fd<\/strong><\/td>$885$\u4ebf<\/td>$+28\\%$<\/td>\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff1b\u8fbe\u5230\u5317\u7ea6\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/td>65<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
        \u6ce2\u5170<\/strong><\/td>$380$\u4ebf<\/td>$+31\\%$<\/td>\u5317\u7ea6\u8fb9\u5883\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u519b\u4e8b\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u3002<\/td>65<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
        \u4ee5\u8272\u5217<\/strong><\/td>$465$\u4ebf<\/td>$+65\\%$<\/td>\u52a0\u6c99\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u7ea7\uff08\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\uff09\u3002<\/td>65<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
        \u4fc4\u7f57\u65af<\/strong><\/td>$1490$\u4ebf<\/td>$+38\\%$<\/td>\u5168\u9762\u6218\u4e89\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff1b\u5360GDP\u7684 $7.1\\%$\u3002<\/td>65<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
        \u80a1\u7968 (STOXX\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u9632)<\/strong><\/td>N\/A<\/td>\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8<\/td>\u57fa\u4e8e\u6709\u4fdd\u969c\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/td>67<\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
        \n\n\n\n

        \u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u91cd\u7ec4\uff1a\u201c\u53cb\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d\u7684\u51fa\u73b0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u9664\u4e86\u5bf9\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u7269\u6d41\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u51b2\u51fb\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u51b2\u7a81\u6700\u6df1\u523b\u3001\u6700\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u91cd\u6784\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u6548\u7387<\/em>\u81f3\u4e0a\uff08\u5bfb\u6c42\u6700\u4f4e\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\uff09\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5316\u6a21\u5f0f\u6b63\u5728\u88ab dismantling\uff0c\u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u97e7\u6027<\/em>\uff08\u5bfb\u6c42\u6700\u5b89\u5168\u4f9b\u5e94\uff09\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b0\u8303\u5f0f\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u540d\u5b57\uff1a\u201c\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d (near-shoring\uff0c\u5c06\u751f\u4ea7\u79fb\u8fd1\u672c\u571f)\u3001\u201c\u56de\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d (reshoring\uff0c\u5c06\u751f\u4ea7\u8fc1\u56de\u672c\u571f)\uff0c\u6216\u201c\u53cb\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d (friend-shoring\uff0c\u5c06\u751f\u4ea7\u8fc1\u81f3\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6)\u300268<\/sup> \u5176\u6218\u7565\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u654c\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u6613\u53d7\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u54bd\u5589\u8981\u9053\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u300269<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u8fd9\u4e00\u6218\u7565\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e8c\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u8282\u4e2d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u6218\u672f\u95ee\u9898\u6240\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u5408\u4e4e\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u957f\u671f\u56de\u5e94\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u4f4d\u9996\u5e2d\u8d22\u52a1\u5b98 (CFO) \u770b\u5230\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347 13<\/sup> \u548c\u8fd0\u8f93\u6210\u672c\u6fc0\u589e 28<\/sup> \u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u518d\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5411\u80a1\u4e1c\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4f9d\u8d56\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u654c\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u6216\u4f9d\u8d56\u7a7f\u8d8a\u51b2\u7a81\u70b9\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u8fd0\u8f93\u8def\u7ebf\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u201c\u53cb\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d\u5c06\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u5185\u5316\u4e3a\u201c\u9500\u552e\u6210\u672c\u201d (COGS)\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5728\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6216\u8d8a\u5357\u5efa\u65b0\u5de5\u5382\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\u6210\u672c\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u603b\u6210\u672c\u201d\u2014\u2014\u73b0\u5728\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u957f\u8fbe\u6570\u6708\u4e2d\u65ad\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u2014\u2014\u8981\u4f4e\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u91cd\u7ec4\u4e5f\u6709\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002FMI\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3 (CEPR) \u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u788e\u7247\u5316<\/em>\u300269<\/sup> \u8fd9\u79cd\u788e\u7247\u5316\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6548\u7387\uff0c\uff08\u901a\u8fc7\u62b5\u6d88\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u5236\u9020\u76f8\u4e92\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u96c6\u56e2\u6765\u52a0\u5267\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u300269<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b58\u5728\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f46\u5916\u56fd\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44 (FDI) \u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u91cd\u7ec4\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u6570\u636e\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u660e\u786e\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • \u6848\u4f8b1\uff1a\u58a8\u897f\u54e5 (\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305)\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u201c\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d\u6218\u7565\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u76ca\u8005\uff0c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u57282023\u5e74\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u4f19\u4f34\u300271<\/sup> FDI\u6d41\u52a8\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a2025\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u5438\u5f15\u4e86 $343$ \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684FDI\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f $10.2\\%$\u300272<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • \u6848\u4f8b2\uff1a\u8d8a\u5357 (\u53cb\u5cb8\u5916\u5305)\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u6218\u7565\uff08\u65e8\u5728\u4f7f\u4e9a\u6d32\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u795e\u7ecf\u4e2d\u67a2\u300273<\/sup> FDI\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5176\u589e\u957f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u622a\u81f32024\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1FDI\u5b58\u91cf\u8d85\u8fc7 $3220$ \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143 73<\/sup>\uff0c\u5e76\u57282024\u5e7412\u6708\u521b\u4e0b\u4e86 $253.5$ \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6d41\u5165\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u300274<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u58a8\u897f\u54e5FDI\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5fae\u5999\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u57282025\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u7684 $343$ \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143FDI\u4e2d\uff0c\u9ad8\u8fbe $84.4\\%$ \u6765\u81ea\u5df2\u6210\u7acb\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u518d\u6295\u8d44<\/em>\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u201c\u65b0\u6295\u8d44\u201d\u300272<\/sup> \u8fbe\u62c9\u65af\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8c1c\u56e2 75<\/sup>\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e76\u4e0d\uff08\u4e00\u5b9a\uff09\u5728\u627f\u62c5\u4ece\u96f6\u5f00\u59cb\u5efa\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u5de5\u5382\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u8d44\u672c\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u8f7b\u8d44\u4ea7\u201d (asset-light) \u6a21\u5f0f\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u5206\u5305\u3001\u5408\u540c\u5236\u9020\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5229\u7528\u58a8\u897f\u54e5IMMEX\u8ba1\u5212\u4e0b\u7684\u201c\u5e87\u62a4\u516c\u53f8\u201d (shelter companies)\u300275<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \u8fd9\u662f\u201c\u9690\u5f62\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d (stealth nearshoring)\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u6b63\u5728\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7684\u73b0\u6709\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u65e0\u9700\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u5373\u53ef\u83b7\u5f97\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u5bf9\u51b2\u98ce\u9669\u300219<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n

          \u201c\u53cb\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d\u8d62\u5bb6\uff1aFDI\u6d41\u52a8 (2024-2025)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \u56fd\u5bb6<\/strong><\/td>FDI\u6307\u6807<\/strong><\/td>\u6570\u636e (\u65f6\u671f)<\/strong><\/td>\u6765\u6e90 \/ \u6295\u8d44\u6027\u8d28<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
          \u58a8\u897f\u54e5<\/strong><\/td>FDI\u603b\u989d (2025\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74)<\/td>$343$\u4ebf (\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f $+10.2\\%$)<\/td>72<\/sup> \u7f8e\u56fd\u201c\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d\u7684\u5f3a\u5927\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/td><\/tr>
          \u58a8\u897f\u54e5<\/strong><\/td>\u5229\u6da6\u518d\u6295\u8d44\u5360\u6bd4 (2025\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74)<\/td>$84.4\\%$<\/td>72<\/sup> \u201c\u8f7b\u8d44\u4ea7\u201d\u589e\u957f\uff1b\u6269\u5f20\u73b0\u6709\u4e1a\u52a1\u300275<\/sup><\/td><\/tr>
          \u8d8a\u5357<\/strong><\/td>FDI (2025\u5e7410\u6708)<\/td>$213$\u4ebf (\u7d2f\u8ba1)<\/td>74<\/sup> \u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u591a\u5143\u5316\u7684\u5173\u952e\u53d7\u76ca\u8005\u3002<\/td><\/tr>
          \u8d8a\u5357<\/strong><\/td>FDI\u5b58\u91cf (2024\u5e74\u5e95)<\/td>$>3220$\u4ebf<\/td>73<\/sup> \u6df1\u5165\u3001\u957f\u671f\u5730\u878d\u5165\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3002<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
          \n\n\n\n

          \u521b\u65b0\u6096\u8bba\uff1a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u201c\u884d\u751f\u201d\u79d1\u6280<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u7834\u7a97\u8c2c\u8bba\u201d (broken window fallacy) 76<\/sup> \u6b63\u786e\u5730\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7834\u574f\u662f\u51c0\u635f\u5931\u3002\u91cd\u5efa\u4e00\u5ea7\u88ab\u6467\u6bc1\u7684\u5de5\u5382\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u8d22\u5bcc\uff1b\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u66ff\u6362\u4e86\u672c\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u751f\u4ea7\u6027\u76ee\u7684\u7684\u635f\u5931\u8d44\u672c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7834\u574f\u662f\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u652f\u51fa<\/em>\u786e\u5b9e\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u7279\u5b9a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u5177\u6709\u519b\u6c11\u4e24\u7528 (dual-use) 77<\/sup> \u5e94\u7528\u7684\u201c\u884d\u751f\u201d (spin-offs) \u79d1\u6280\u300279<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a21\u4e16\u7eaa\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u7814\u53d1 (R&D) \u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u300280<\/sup> \u5168\u4e16\u754c\u89c1\u8bc1\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u9886\u57df\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • \u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u6218\u4e89\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f7f\u7528\u5ec9\u4ef7\u3001\u6539\u88c5\u7684FPV\uff08\u7b2c\u4e00\u4eba\u79f0\u89c6\u89d2\uff09\u65e0\u4eba\u673a 81<\/sup>\u3001\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u8702\u7fa4 82<\/sup> \u548c3D\u6253\u5370\u6b66\u5668\u300283<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • \u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff1a<\/strong> \u5728\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u4f7f\u7528AI\u8fdb\u884c\u76ee\u6807\u8bc6\u522b\u548c\u81ea\u4e3b\u4f5c\u6218\u300283<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • \u6d77\u6218\uff1a<\/strong> \u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u6d77\u4e0a\u65e0\u4eba\u8247 (USV)\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u538b\u5236\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9ed1\u6d77\u8230\u961f\u300285<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            \u8fd9\u4e00\u521b\u65b0\u5468\u671f\u6b63\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u201c\u56fd\u9632\u79d1\u6280\u201d (DefenseTech) \u521d\u521b\u516c\u53f8\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u63a8\u52a8\u3002\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7d27\u8feb\u6027\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ec52025\u5e74\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u519b\u4e8b\u79d1\u6280\u521d\u521b\u516c\u53f8\u5c31\u7b79\u96c6\u4e86\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684 $14$ \u4ebf\u6b27\u5143\u300287<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5bf920\u4e16\u7eaa\u519b\u4e8b\u521b\u65b0\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4e2d\uff0c\u5de8\u989d\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\uff08\u66fc\u54c8\u987f\u8ba1\u5212\u3001V2\u706b\u7bad\uff09\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u540e\u624d\u4ea7\u751f\u6c11\u7528\u201c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u201d\u300276<\/sup> \u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6d41\u52a8\u5df2\u7ecf\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u662f\u6c11\u7528<\/em>\u6280\u672f\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u7ea7\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u3001\u5546\u4e1aAI\u8f6f\u4ef6\u30013D\u6253\u5370\u673a\uff09\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u3001\u7531\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u652f\u6301\u7684\u521d\u521b\u516c\u53f8\u7528\u4e8e<\/em>\u6218\u573a\u300287<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u8fd4\u56de\u6c11\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u201c\u884d\u751f\u201d\u5c06\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u77ac\u65f6 (instantaneous) \u7684\u3002\u5728\u9ed1\u6d77\u5b8c\u5584\u7684AI 84<\/sup> \u548c\u81ea\u4e3b\u5bfc\u822a 85<\/sup> \u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5728\u81ea\u4e3b\u8d27\u8fd0\u3001\u4ed3\u5e93\u7269\u6d41\u3001\u7cbe\u51c6\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7ba1\u7406\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u6709\u7740\u76f4\u63a5\u3001\u5373\u65f6\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u6280\u672f\u7684\u8fc5\u901f\u6269\u6563\u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u201c\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u201d (spillover) \u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u7684\uff08\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7269\u7406\u4e0a\u7684\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6b63\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u6269\u5927\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u751f\u4ea7\u89c4\u6a21\u300280<\/sup> 2025\u5e749\u6708\uff0c\u591a\u67b6\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u4fb5\u5165\u6ce2\u5170\u9886\u7a7a\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u534e\u6c99\u673a\u573a\u6682\u65f6\u5173\u95ed\u300289<\/sup> \u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653b\u51fb\u5a92\u4ecb\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u6b66\u5668\u762b\u75ea\u5317\u7ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u67a2\u7ebd\u548c\u5173\u952e\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u5728\u788e\u7247\u5316\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u822a\u884c<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u6b63\u5982FMI\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\uff0c2025-2026\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ee5\u201c\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u201d 6<\/sup> \u548c $3.2\\%$ \u7684\u6e29\u548c\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f 9<\/sup> \u4e3a\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u75b2\u8f6f\u5e76\u975e\u5468\u671f\u6027\u4f4e\u8c37\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u5168\u7403\u5316\u652f\u67f1\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d7\u5230\u4fb5\u8680\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u56e0\u51b2\u7a81\u800c\u52a0\u901f\u548c\u63a8\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u201c\u548c\u5e73\u7ea2\u5229\u201d\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u2014\u2014\u5373\u81ea1990\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u63a8\u52a8\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u3001\u4ee5\u4f4e\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u7eaf\u7cb9\u6210\u672c\u4f18\u5316\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u548c\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u2014\u2014\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u8fdb\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u201c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7a0e\u201d (geopolitical tax) \u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7a0e\u4e0d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u7eb3\u7a0e\u7533\u62a5\u5355\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u6bcf\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u90fd\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u5b83\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5217\u5f62\u5f0f\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u7a0e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            • \u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651GNL\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027<\/em>\u800c\u975e\u7ba1\u9053\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u6548\u7387<\/em>\u7684\u6210\u672c\u300215<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • \u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u8fd0\u8f93\u6210\u672c\uff1a<\/strong> \u6218\u4e89\u98ce\u9669\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39 28<\/sup> \u548c\u7ed5\u884c\u822a\u7ebf\u989d\u5916\u71c3\u6599\u7684\u6210\u672c\u300227<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • \u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\uff1a<\/strong> \u5efa\u7acb\u5197\u4f59<\/em> (redundant) \u548c\u201c\u53cb\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u201d\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6210\u672c\u4f18\u5316\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u6210\u672c\u300269<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • \u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u9884\u7b97\uff1a<\/strong> \u5728\u66f4\u5371\u9669\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u8fd0\u4f5c\u6240\u9700\u7684\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u56fd\u9632\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u6210\u672c\u300265<\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • \u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c\uff1a<\/strong> \u4e3a\u5bf9\u6297\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u6469\u64e6\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u800c\u5fc5\u987b\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u7d27\u7f29\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6210\u672c\u300219<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

              \u5bf9\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3001\u9ad8\u7ba1\u548c\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u9700\u8981\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9700\u8981\u8ba1\u5165\u6210\u672c (priced in) \u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u788e\u7247\u5316\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u914d\u7f6e\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u6218\u7565\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5f00\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              \u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e00\u76f4\u5c06\u6218\u4e89\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u5916\u6e90\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u77ed\u6682\u5730\u6270\u4e71\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u7136\u540e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14259,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[235,175],"tags":[142],"class_list":{"0":"post-14265","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-investments-zh-hans","8":"category-economics-zh-hans","9":"tag-noticias-zh-hans"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14265","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14265"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14265\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zythos.es\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}